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Start your Independent Premium subscription today. The first 2020 battleground electoral map by NBC News was released on Friday, showing the former vice president with a lead of 334 electoral votes. What time is the presidential debate tonight? But these fairly urban states have also seen their major metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix become increasingly Democratic because of the surge in college-educated voters. So those are the five key swing states that will decide the election: But Biden doesn’t need to win all of them. Suffice it to say that, with Trump on the ballot this November, many of the forces we saw in 2016 will be prevalent again in 2020. It’s been vocal about its hopes to take Minnesota, with Nevada and New Hampshire as stretch targets if it can close the gap – but it’s a big stretch. 2) Compete for the state’s six Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified GOP control of the state government by flipping the Iowa State House. He's running against Cal Cunningham. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast anticipates that some of these states, like New Hampshire and Wisconsin, might bounce back slightly to the left in 2020, but also that others, like Minnesota, may continue to shift to the right. Mr Biden seemed to be gaining ground in other states like Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which have favoured Republican presidential nominees in past years but have appeared to shift somewhat following the 2016 election. The latter, led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is preventing us from passing bi-partisan laws, like H.R.8 requiring universal background checks, that will save American lives. Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription. Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. If we want to save our democracy and create a progressive America, not only will we need to remove Donald Trump from office, but we'll also need to keep the House of Representatives blue and flip the Republican Senate. That Biden lead translate to plenty of states that could change hands, with both the traditionally Democratic states Trump took in 2016 and some states that have been Republican for years among them. With the help of Swing Left—a national grassroots organization founded after the 2016 election—we can make a difference by paying attention to the 12 Super States, a.k.a. Geography: Voters in every region of the country have wildly differing opinions often based on the experience of the physical place where they live. No Republican candidate had won the presidency without Ohio, and Mr Trump’s Rust Belt victories scorched long-held Democratic alliances through the Midwest. © 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Mr Biden is looking to win back all of those, but three are absolutely crucial – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The next five states also shifted to the right in 2016, but they didn’t veer quite as far as the previous four did. Swing states: These states decide if … While Mr Trump won with 306 electoral votes in 2016, the latest national polling has him losing to Mr Biden in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These states predominantly lie in the South and West, and the following trio of traditionally red states could all be up for grabs this November. Mr Obama won the state in 2012 and 2008, though Republican George W Bush carried it in 2004 and, infamously, in 2000 by just 537 votes after a massive recount effort that delayed results of the election for weeks. But if Democrats lose all three states again, then they would need another path to the presidency. Are you sure you want to mark this comment as inappropriate? If he can get just three – and avoid losing any states that Clinton won – then he’ll be able to take the White House. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. At present, the FiveThirtyEight forecast anticipates these states will lean similar to how they did 2016, although further shifts to the left are plausible. You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website. © 2020 Associated Newspapers Limited. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are competing for crucial handful of states that could determine the presidency, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. He also won in Wisconsin, which had not voted for a Republican since 1984. Joe Biden: Who is the 2020 Democratic candidate? It allows our most engaged readers to debate the big issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more. The former vice president is leading national polls overall within weeks of Election Day, as millions of voters begin casting ballots. Are you sure you want to delete this comment? Use our maps, polls and analysis to follow top battlegrounds in the 2020 election. When their votes reach a majority (270 votes), that candidate is declared the winner. You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. That means largely populated states can act as key electoral victories, or losses – large electoral vote states like California and New York, reliably “safe” Democratic states, can guarantee as many as 84 electoral votes combined. For example, they've voted for the same candidate or party for a long time. Here, Marie Claire and Swing Left outline the swing states that we should be targeting in November and beyond with specific goals for each of them. Michigan and Wisconsin are both looking very strong for the Democrats. How to watch Donald Trump vs Joe Biden live in the UK. He’ll also be looking to press home that advantage in a few other states beyond the Rust Belt. Again, these are the states where campaigns believe there are large blocks of persuadable voters. This offsets the rest of those states, which usually vote far more Republican. For one thing, these states are more racially and ethnically diverse than most of the other states we’ve looked at — Arizona and Texas have large Hispanic populations, for instance, while Georgia has a sizable Black electorate — and people of color tend to vote more Democratic. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. Will states like Iowa or Ohio move further to the right? However, while as many as 10 or 15 could switch hands, including those that could switch to Mr Trump if he closes the gap, the race boils down to a small number of essential swing states. have at least one large metropolitan area that votes heavily Democratic. While it may just show a snapshot in time, the former vice president currently has a clear lead against the Republican incumbent, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines. Alongside those, Arizona is looking like a key state, despite being Republican since 1948 (aside from Bill Clinton winning it by a hair in 1996.) USA TODAY Network reporters explore battlegrounds within 6 states – the keys to the political map in the states likely to choose the next president. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly. If you want to help make a difference, whether you live in a swing state or not, find out how to volunteer for Swing Left and invest in a progressive future here. 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